Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.